“We are no longer scattered among the nations, powerless to defend ourselves. We restored our sovereignty in our ancient home. And the soldiers who defend our home have boundless courage. For the first time in 100 generations, we, the Jewish people, can defend ourselves. This is why — this is why, as a prime minister of Israel, I can promise you one more thing: Even if Israel has to stand alone, Israel will stand.”
–Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Speech to Joint Session of the United States Congress, March 3, 2015

Q: If Israel attacked Iran to prevent Tehran from getting nuclear weapons, would you help?

REP. RON PAUL: I wouldn’t do that, because I don’t expect it to happen. A Mossad leader said it would be the stupidest thing to do in the world. They’re not about to do this. And you’re supposing that if it did, why does Israel need our help? We need to get out of their way. When they want to have peace treaties, we tell them what they can do because we buy their allegiance and they sacrifice their sovereignty to us. And then they decide they want to bomb something, that’s their business, but they should suffer the consequences. When they bombed the Iraqi nuclear site, back in the ’80s, I was one of the few in Congress that said it’s none of our business and Israel should take care of themselves. Why do we have this automatic commitment that we’re going to send our kids and send our money endlessly to Israel?
–2011 CNN National Security GOP primary debate Nov 22, 2011

I just saw on Turner Movie Classics Humphrey Bogart’s last movie, as a sports writer turned boxing promoter, from 1956, The Harder They Fall. It’s about an oversized South American named Toro Moreno (Mike Lane) who, despite having zero boxing skills and a glass jaw, wins 23 heavyweight fights by the simple expedient of all 23 opponents being paid to take dives. So when Toro Moreno is finally in a real bout against the real world heavyweight boxing champion, he goes down in the third round with a broken jaw, and lasting that long only because his strategy is to stay away from the champ as long as possible.

The State of Israel has prevailed in all its wars to date beginning in 1948 against the combined military forces of Egypt, Syria, Transjordan and Iraq; in 1967’s Six Day War against Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Iraq; in 1973’s Yom Kippur War against Egyptian and Syrian forces; in 1976 Israeli commandos successfully rescued 102 Israeli hostages from Entebbe, Uganda; and Israel prevailed against the Palestinian Liberation Organization attacking from Lebanon in 1978 and various additional attacks from Palestinian Arabs, including rocket attacks, in the years since. In 1981 the Israeli air force destroyed Iraq’s sole nuclear reactor, under construction outside Baghdad.

Israel is rumored to possess a nuclear arsenal as well as chemical and biological weapons — but rumor is all it is since Israel has never admitted to it and no objective proof of Israel’s status as a nuclear power has ever been offered.

So I imagine a poker game in which the players are U.S. President Barack Obama; Supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei; King Salman of Saudi Arabia; Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu; and Dr. Ron Paul.

King Salman is holding markers from the United States and Barack Obama is holding markers from Israel. It’s an open secret that it’s not entirely an honest game because some players can signal other players; yet it’s still interesting because the players do conceal their true hands and the game is based almost entirely on the ability of several of the players to bluff the others. Dr. Ron Paul, the only player who’s not a Head of State, has been allowed into the game only because he’s willing to play all his cards openly and his cards inform the other players.

Iran and Israel both have to convince the other players that they have powerful hands (military forces) to remain in the game. Israel has to convince the other players that it has a nuclear arsenal and Iran has to convince the other players that it can have a nuclear arsenal in short order.

The United States has a massive nuclear arsenal and the most deployable, effective, and well-armed military in human history. But the United States is in massive debt and to avoid what I’ve termed Yankruptcy has to use its military in ways pleasing to foreign powers such as Saudi Arabia, which is willing to inject massive amounts of investment capital into the United States economy all the while financing radical Wahabis whose agenda is an Islamic caliphate that attacks or at least dominates the United States and as many other powers as possible.

Dr. Ron Paul is showing four Aces in Hearts.

King Salman has four Aces in Diamonds.

Ali Khamenei has a pair of jacks in Clubs.

Barack Obama is holding a Royal Flush in Spades. (Racial reference acknowledged but unavoidable — it’s simply the highest hand possible in Poker.)

Barack Obama is the only player who actually knows the cards in Netanyahu’s hand.

King Salman is using his markers to signal Barack Obama both to fold and to use its markers with Israel to signal Netanyahu to fold.

The outcome of this game is entirely in the hands of Benjamin Netanyahu because Neyanyahu is the best player at the table and is utterly willing to raise to the maximum regardless of his hand.

But ironically, if Obama successfully uses his marker to get Netanyahu to fold, and himself folds because King Salman wants him to, then Ron Paul wins the hand.